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We employ a 2x3 factorial experiment to study two central factors in thedesign of prediction markets (PMs) for idea evaluation: the overall design ofthe PM, and the elasticity of market prices set by a market maker. The resultsshow that 'multi-market designs' on which each contract is traded on a separatePM lead to significantly higher trading performance than 'single-markets' thathandle all contracts one on PM. Price elasticity has no direct effect ontrading performance, but a significant interaction effect with market designimplies that the performance difference between the market designs is highestin settings of moderate price elasticity. We contribute to the emergingresearch stream of PM design through an unprecedented experiment which comparescurrent market designs.

The Effects of Prediction Market Design and Price Elasticity on Trading Performance of Users: An Experimental Analysis