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We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) whatis the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what arethe possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquakesequence in the Tohoku area. Starting in 1999 we have carried out long- andshort-term forecasts for Japan and the surrounding areas using the GCMTcatalog. The forecasts predict the earthquake rate per area, time, magnitudeunit and earthquake focal mechanisms. Long-term forecasts indicate that therepeat time for the m9 earthquake in the Tohoku area is of the order of 350years. We have archived several forecasts made before and after the Tohokuearthquake. The long-term rate estimates indicate that, as expected, theforecasted rate changed only by a few percent after the Tohoku earthquake,whereas due to the foreshocks, the short-term rate increased by a factor ofmore than 100 before the mainshock event as compared to the long-term rate.After the Tohoku mega-earthquake the rate increased by a factor of more than1000. These results suggest that an operational earthquake forecasting strategyneeds to be developed to take the increase of the short-term rates intoaccount.

Long- and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts during the Tohoku Sequence