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We present a model of voting behaviour based on a version of aggregatedoverdispersed multinomial distributions; relative to a similar model by\citet{BP86}, our model is based on more realistic assumptions and free fromcertain shortcomings of the previous model. We show that, within this model, itis possible to test for certain confounding effects due to observablecovariates measured at the aggregate level; such effects, if ignored, mightcause substantial bias in the estimated relation between voting decisions intwo close in time elections, a phenomenon known as {\em Ecological Fallacy}. Anapplication to a referendum following an election for the major in the town ofMilan, which was interpreted as a defeat for the Berlusconi gouvernment, isused as an illustration.

Modelling sources of ecological fallacy within a revised Brown and Payne model of voting transitions