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Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and theintensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robustresults of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this successmodel-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climateresponses however, have implications for climate predictability especially whenmulti-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of 20th and21st century A2 scenario performed with IPCC-AR4 models have deficiencies insimulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a fewmodels affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget and an imbalancedflux of -0.14 Sv exists whereas the multi-model median imbalance is only -0.02Sv. For most models, the detected imbalances furthermore change over time. As aconsequence, in 13 of the 18 IPCC-AR4 models examined, global annual meanprecipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a"leaking" of moisture from the atmosphere whereas for the remaining 5 models a"flooding" is implied. The source / sink of moisture can also be regarded asatmospheric latent heating / cooling and hence as positive / negativeperturbations of the atmospheric energy budget or non-radiative forcings in therange of -1 to +6 W/m2 (median is +0.1 W/m2). The global atmospheric moisturetransport from oceans to land areas, which impacts the terrestrial water cyclealso increases by about 5% with a model-to-model range from 1 to 13% in the21st century. The variability is partially due to the different implementationsof aerosol forcings in the models. The assessment of the pole wards shifts ofdry zones in climate simulations show that the multi-model means of the twosubsets of leaking and flooding models produce spatial shifts similar in sizeas expected from 21st century global warming simulations.

Assessment of inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 climate models