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A new prediction error correction scheme based on 74 circulationcharacteristics data provided by Weather Diagnostic Forecasting Division ofNational Climate Center, which is designed to develop the Operational NumericalForecast Model (ONFM) of the National Climate Center of China, and the skilllevel of the precipitation prediction for rainy season in the midlower reaches(MLR) of the Yangtze River by ONFM is obviously raised. The approach useprincipal component(PC) analysis to prediction error of ONFM. And we useddifferent factors to correct the different PCs of the error of precipitationfield. The comparative study results indicate that the effectiveness of the newanalogue error correction (AEC) scheme is better than system error correction(SEC) scheme.

Analogue-dynamical Prediction of Numerical Model Errors in the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River