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In a study of the heterogeneity in malaria infection rates among childrenSmith et al.1 fitted several mathematical models to data from community studiesin Africa. They concluded that 20% of children receive 80% of infections, thatinfections last about six months on average, that children who clear infectionsare not immune to new infections, and that the sensitivity and specificity ofmicroscopy for the detection of malaria parasites are 95.8% and 88.4%,respectively. These findings would have important implications for diseasecontrol, but we show here that the statistical analysis is unsound and that thedata do not support their conclusions.

Biological and Statistical Heterogeneity in Malaria Transmission