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Several groups have recently modeled evolutionary transitions from anancestral allele to a beneficial allele separated by one or more interveningmutants. The beneficial allele can become fixed if a succession of intermediatemutants are fixed or alternatively if successive mutants arise while theprevious intermediate mutant is still segregating. This latter process has beentermed stochastic tunneling. Previous work has focused on the Moran model ofpopulation genetics. I use elementary methods of analyzing stochastic processesto derive the probability of tunneling in the limit of large population sizefor both Moran and Wright-Fisher populations. I also show how to efficientlyobtain numerical results for finite populations. These results show that theprobability of stochastic tunneling is twice as large under the Wright-Fishermodel as it is under the Moran model.

The rate of multi-step evolution in Moran and Wright-Fisher populations