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Malaria control strategies aiming at reducing disease transmission intensitymay impact both oocyst intensity and infection prevalence in the mosquitovector. Thus far, mathematical models failed to identify a clear relationshipbetween Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes and their infectiousness tomosquitoes. Natural isolates of gametocytes are genetically diverse andbiologically complex. Infectiousness to mosquitoes relies on multipleparameters such as density, sex-ratio, maturity, parasite genotypes and hostimmune factors. In this article, we investigated how density and geneticdiversity of gametocytes impact on the success of transmission in the mosquitovector. We analyzed data for which the number of covariates plus attendantinteractions is at least of order of the sample size, precluding usage ofclassical models such as general linear models. We then considered the variableimportance from random forests to address the problem of selecting the mostinfluent variables. The selected covariates were assessed in the zero inflatednegative binomial model which accommodates both over-dispersion and the sourcesof non infected mosquitoes. We found that the most important covariates relatedto infection prevalence and parasite intensity are gametocyte density andmultiplicity of infection.

Gametocytes infectiousness to mosquitoes: variable selection using random forests, and zero inflated models