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The transmission through contacts among MSM (men who have sex with men) isone of the dominating contributors to HIV prevalence in industrializedcountries. In Amsterdam, the capital of the Netherlands, the MSM risk group hasbeen traced for decades. This has motivated studies which provide detailedinformation about MSM's risk behavior statistically, psychologically andsociologically. Despite the era of potent antiretroviral therapy, the incidenceof HIV among MSM increases. In the long term the contradictory effects of riskbehavior and effective therapy are still poorly understood. Using a previouslypresented Complex Agent Network model, we describe steady and casualpartnerships to predict the HIV spreading among MSM. Behavior-relatedparameters and values, inferred from studies on Amsterdam MSM, are fed into themodel; we validate the model using historical yearly incidence data.Subsequently, we study scenarios to assess the contradictory effects of riskbehavior and effective therapy, by varying corresponding values of parameters.Finally, we conduct quantitative analysis based on the resulting incidencedata. The simulated incidence reproduces the ACS historical incidence well andhelps to predict the HIV epidemic among MSM in Amsterdam. Our results show thatin the long run the positive influence of effective therapy can be outweighedby an increase in risk behavior of at least 30% for MSM. Conclusion: Werecommend, based on the model predictions, that lowering risk behavior is theprominent control mechanism of HIV incidence even in the presence of effectivetherapy.

Increasing risk behavior can outweigh the benefits of anti-retroviral drug treatment on the HIV incidence among men-having-sex-with-men in Amsterdam