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This paper analyses changes in public opinion by tracking politicaldiscussions in which people voluntarily engage online. Unlike polls or surveys,our approach does not elicit opinions but approximates what the public thinksby analysing the discussions in which they decide to take part. We measure theemotional content of online discussions in three dimensions (valence, arousaland dominance), paying special attention to deviation around average values,which we use as a proxy for disagreement and polarisation. We show that thismeasurement of public opinion helps predict presidential approval rates,suggesting that there is a point of connection between online discussions(often deemed not representative of the overall population) and offline polls.We also show that this measurement provides a deeper understanding of theindividual mechanisms that drive aggregated shifts in public opinion. Our dataspans a period that includes two US presidential elections, the attacks ofSeptember 11, and the start of military action in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Emotional Reactions and the Pulse of Public Opinion: Measuring the Impact of Political Events on the Sentiment of Online Discussions