English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve interms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety ofE.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Swedenand the U.K.). The data used range from 1991:Q1 to 2009:Q1. For each country,we extract the long run trend and the cyclical component of real economicactivity, while the corresponding interbank interest rates of long and shortterm maturities are used for the calculation of the country specific yieldspreads. We also augment the models tested with non monetary policy variables:the countries' unemployment rates and stock indices. The methodology employedin the effort to forecast real output, is a probit model of the inversecumulative distribution function of the standard distribution, using severalformal forecasting and goodness of fit evaluation tests. The results show thatthe yield curve augmented with the non-monetary variables has significantforecasting power in terms of real economic activity but the results differqualitatively between the individual economies examined raising non-trivialpolicy implications.

GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries