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Theoretically, communities at or near their equilibrium species number resistentry of new species. Such 'biotic resistance' recently has been questionedbecause of successful entry of alien species into diverse natural communities.Data on 10,409 naturalizations of 5350 plant species over 16 sites dispersedglobally show exponential distributions for both species over sites and sitesover number of species shared. These exponentials signal a statisticalmechanics of species distribution, assuming two conditions. First, species andsites are equivalent, either identical ('neutral'), or so complex that thechance a species is in the right place at the right time is vanishingly small('idiosyncratic'); the range of species and sites in our data disallows aneutral explanation. Secondly, the total number of naturalisations is fixed inany era by a 'regulator'. Previous correlation of species naturalization rateswith net primary productivity over time suggests that regulator is related toproductivity. We conclude that biotic resistance is a moving ceiling, withresistance controlled by productivity. The general observation that themajority of species occur naturally at only a few sites but only a few at manynow has a quantitative [exponential] character, offering the study of species'distributions a previously unavailable rigor.

The statistical mechanics of community assembly and species distribution