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Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion ofa robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) dueto short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources.Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25%year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, thehour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energydeficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensationgeneration capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits ofwRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditurefor fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibilitythat carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions willmiss the California Assembly Bill 32 (CA AB 32) target by a wide margin oncethe wRPS15 compensation system is in place. This work presents a set ofanalytics tools that show the impact of short-term intermittencies to helppolicy makers understand and plan for wRPS15 integration. What are the rightpolicy choices for RPS that include wind energy?

Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits