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In this study an attempt has been made to examine the rate of growth, measure the instability as well as forecasting of grass pea and mung bean pulse production. For forecasting, deterministic and ARIMA model have been fitted and projections have been made on the basis of the best fitted deterministic and ARIMA model. The magnitude of instability in grass pea and mung bean pulse production was estimated by computing the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage deviations from three years moving average values. The study reveals that the grass pea pulse production was observed to be relatively stable (CV being 44.38%) compared to mung bean pulse production (CV being 52.87%). The variation of the growth rates in grass pea pulse production was -19.51% to 14.44% and mung bean pulse production was -21.55% to 20.26% during the study period. The projection of production indicated the vital potential of grass pea and mung bean pulse in Bangladesh. Thus, policy makers, stake holders and beneficiaries (farmers) should take necessary steps to check the decline in area under sugarcane without further delay.

Modeling on Grass Pea and Mung Bean Pulse Production in Bangladesh Using ARIMA Model