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This study proposed a two-dimensional horizontal numerical model based on the nonlinear shallow water wave equations to simulate tsunami propagation and coastal inundation. We numerically investigated the possible impacts of tsunami caused by the triple interlocked Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes on the Jeju coastal areas, using the proposed model. The simultaneous Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes were created a virtual tsunami model of an M9.0 earthquake. In numerical analysis, a grid nesting method for the local grid refinement in shallow coastal regions was employed to sufficiently reproduce the shoaling effects. The numerical model was carefully validated through comparisons with the data collected during the tsunami events by 2011 East Japan Earthquake and 1983 central East Sea Earthquake (Nihonkai Chubu Earthquake). Tsunami propagation triggered by the combined Tokai, Tonanakai and Nankai, Earthquakes was simulated for 10 hours to sufficiently consider the effects of tsunami in the coastal areas of Jeju Island. The numerical results revealed that water level fluctuation in tsunami propagation is greatly influenced by water-depth change, refraction, diffraction and reflection. In addition, the maximum tsunami height numerically estimated in the coastal areas of Jeju Island was about 1.6 m at Sagye port.

Effects on the Jeju Island of Tsunamis Caused by Triple Interlocked Tokai, Tonankai, Nankai Earthquakes in Pacific Coast of Japan