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Numerical models are a core tool used in coastal hazard Early Warning Systems (EWS) to predict the magnitude of sub-aerial beach and dune erosion associated with impending storm events. Immediate pre-storm nearshore and surf zone bathymetry is a key input required for these numerical models. However, the expense and challenging nature of hydrographic surveying in this region means that the availability of high-quality data is extremely rare. Consequently, several alternative approaches can be undertaken, including 1) irregular updating of bathymetry based on the availability of survey data; 2) real-time data assimilation using remotely sensed bathymetry; and 3) using synthetic or representative bathymetries that characterize the nearshore. This study evaluates the extent to which synthetic and representative bathymetries can be used to obtain reliable predictions of storm induced sub-aerial erosion using the widely utilized XBeach coastal erosion numerical model.

DO WE NEED PRE-STORM SURVEYED BATHYMETRY FOR OPERATIONAL EROSION FORECASTING? EVALUATION OF REPRESENTATIVE AND SYNTHETIC BATHYMETRY ALTERNATIVES