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The ‘Falster dike’ is a system of a coastal vegetated dunes with a grass-covered sand dike protecting a low-lying area of about 7,000 summer houses, many of which being inhabited during winter, and therefore in danger of any storm surge induced flooding. The paper discusses (i) the assessment and uncertainties of relevant data such as bathymetry, topography, wind and wave data, water levels; (ii) deterministic calculations of wave run-up and overtopping of the dike without dunes; (iii) the calculations of dune erosion; and (iv) a reliability assessment of a dune and dike system. Results suggest that the dunes in front of the dikes lead to a significantly increased safety of the flood defences and will therefore withstand present and future conditions, including climate change scenarios.

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF A COASTAL DIKE AND DUNE SYSTEM AT THE SOUTH OF FALSTER, DENMARK