Open AccessModeling Agricultural Gross Domestic Product of Kenyan Economy Using Time Series
Author(s) -
Musyoki M. Ngungu,
Ong'ala Jacob,
Wawire Noah
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
asian journal of probability and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2582-0230
DOI - 10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i124563
Subject(s) - kenya , gross domestic product , agriculture , autoregressive integrated moving average , agricultural economics , economics , product (mathematics) , gross output , time series , geography , economic growth , mathematics , statistics , political science , archaeology , law , geometry
The agriculture sector is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy. Thus, the sector has a significant role and contribution to GDP. In this study, Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to develop a model that best describes the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy. Agricultural gross domestic product data collected quarterly from 2000-2014 at constant 2001 prices is used for modeling. From the analysis, SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)4 was found to be the best model describing the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy.
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