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A probabilistic fragility assessment procedure is developed in this paper to predict risks of damage arising from seismic loading to the two-cell RC box tunnel. Especially, the paper focuses on establishing a simplified methodology to derive fragility curves which are an indispensable ingredient of seismic fragility assessment. In consideration of soil-structure interaction (SSI) effect, the ground response acceleration method for buried structure (GRAMBS) is used in the proposed approach to estimate the dynamic response behavior of the structures. In addition, the damage states of tunnels are identified by conducting the pushover analyses and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique is employed to consider the uncertainties associated with design variables. To illustrate the concepts described, a numerical analysis is conducted and fragility curves are developed for a large set of artificially generated ground motions satisfying a design spectrum. The seismic fragility curves are represented by two-parameter lognormal distribution function and its two parameters, namely the median and log-standard deviation, are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) method.

A probabilistic fragility evaluation method of a RC box tunnel subjected to earthquake loadings