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This paper deals with the prediction in real time of the motion of experimental oil slicks. These slicks were the subject of an oil spill experiment organized by the joint Government/Industry Canadian Aerial Applications Task Force. These experiments offshore were conducted during September 1983 near Halifax on the east coast of Canada, at 44°30′ N, 63°00′ W. The primary objective of the experiments was to determine the suitability of oil spill dispersants as countermeasures. A secondary objective was the testing and verification of oil spill trajectory models and systems. The Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) participated in the experiments to test the capability of its oil spill motion prediction system in providing real time trajectory forecasts. The AES system resident on computer facilities at the Canadian Meteorological Centre in Montreal was accessed through standard telephone lines, with appropriate output products available on a computer terminal near the experiment site. The experiment consisted of three sets of spills. Each set had a control slick and a test slick. Sixteen barrels of crude oil were used in each spill. The test slicks were used to test the effectiveness of various dispersants, the control slicks were used to verify trajectory forecasts. The spill trajectories and oil weathering information obtained from the system during the experiments demonstrated the relative ease with which the system could handle the required input and provide timely forecasts. The accuracy of these forecast trajectories was confirmed by observations, and their utility was demonstrated by their application in the operational decision making process.

REAL TIME APPLICATION OF AN OIL SPILL MOTION PREDICTION SYSTEM