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This study was conducted to investigate the appropriate exposure and system variables that affect the frequencies of submarine pipeline accidents and spills, the relationships among these variables, and the principal failure modes for individual pipeline classes. Available data on accidents, spills, pipeline inventory, and operational experience were used to compute annual and (diameter adjusted) mean accident rates, standard deviations, and confidence limits. Combined data for three dissimilar maritime regions indicate that a failure rate for oil and gas submarine pipelines of between one and ten incidents per 1,000 kilometers (km) per year probably represents a conservative estimate; however, the number of accidents in two of these regions was too small to provide statistically meaningful results. A more detailed analysis of Gulf of Mexico data recorded in the 1969-1980 period revealed that, while external factors such as severe weather and third party (man-made) activity accounted for nearly half of all pipeline incidents in that maritime region, corrosion has accounted for about half of all oil pipeline failures since 1975. Failure rates derived for Gulf of Mexico pipelines, however, are believed to overestimate pipeline vulnerability by a substantial margin owing to the exclusion of all but offshore Texas and Louisiana pipelines from the database.

STATISTICAL FAILURE MODE ANALYSIS OF SUBMARINE PIPELINE ACCIDENTS