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The Detroit District of the Corps of Engineers sponsored a study to determine the probability of an oil spill along the St. Marys River. Specifically, the study was to compute the probability of an oil spill resulting from a tanker accident during normal season operations, and to predict the probability of an accident and a spill during each of five winter extended season alternatives. The study shows that the probability of an accident and a spill can be predicted by a mathematical model using historical accident and spill data together with estimated transits for the extended seasons. Computations show that the probability of a tanker accident in the St. Marys River in a normal season is about 0.4 and the probability of a spill is only 0.03. The probability of an accident for full season extension is less than 0.2 and the probability of a spill is 0.01. Since there is only a one in a hundred chance of a tanker spill during the time added for full season operations, it was concluded that the risk of an oil spill resulting from winter operations in the St. Marys River is slight.

PROBABILITY OF AN OIL SPILL ON THE ST. MARYS RIVER1