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The main aim of this work is to contrast three vari ous probabilistic computational techniques, namely analytical, simulation and pertu rbation-based, in a solution of the transient heat transfer problem in specific axi symmetric problem with Gaussian uncertainty in physical parameters. It is done than ks to a common application of the Finite Element Method program ABAQUS (for the deterministic part) and symbolic algebra system MAPLE, where all probabilistic procedures have been programmed. We determine up to the fourth order probab ilistic characteristics of the resulting temperatures, i.e. expectations, coeffici nts of variation, skewness and kurtosis together with the histograms – all as the functions of the input coefficient of variation of random heat conductivity coefficien t. Stochastic perturbation technique is implemented here using the tenth order Tay lor series expansion and traditional Least Squares Method released with polynomia l basis whose final order is a subject of the separate statistical optimization. Probabilistic results computed show almost perfect agreement of all the probabilis tic characteristics under consideration, which means that the traditional simulatio n method may be replaced due to the time and computer scale savings with the stocha stic perturbation method.

DUAL PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSIENT HEAT TRANSFER BY THE STOCHASTIC FINITE ELEMENT METHOD WITH OPTIMIZED POLYNOMIAL BASIS