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The red sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) fishery is of importance to the economy of Baja California (Mexico). The commercial fishery started in the early 1970s as a result of expanding export markets, but has experienced substantial decline in landings and abundance since 1986. Fishery-independent surveys have not been conducted for all fishing areas, thus CPUE and catch data were used to conduct a stock assessment and decision analysis for the red sea urchin stock. The red sea urchin population dynamics was described with the Schaefer biomass dynamic model. Bayesian approaches were used for the estimation of the model parameters and for projecting the population dynamics of the species under different management scenarios, including constant harvest rate and constant catch strategies. This study suggests that the current stock is only 17% of the virgin stock biomass and that, for a constant catch policy, a 10% increase in the current catch rate could potentially cause the collapse of the fishery in 20 years. Simulation results suggested that a constant harvest rate between 15% and 25% would cause the population to recover and maximize the catch in 2024. Higher harvest rate levels would increase the probability of the biomass being less than 40% of the population carrying capacity.  La pesqueria del erizo rojo (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) es importante para la economia de Baja California (Mexico). Su pesca comercial se inicio a principios de los anos 70 como resultado de la expansion de su mercado de exportacion; sin embargo, se ha detectado una baja sustancial en sus capturas y abundancia desde 1986. Dada la falta de un indice de abundancia relativa independiente de la pesqueria para todas las areas de captura, se utilizaron datos de CPUE y captura para llevar a cabo una valoracion del stock del erizo rojo y realizar un analisis de decision con relacion a su pesqueria. La dinamica poblacional fue descrita mediante el modelo de biomasa excedente de Schaefer usando metodos Bayesianos para estimar los parametros del modelo y para proyectar la dinamica poblacional de la especie bajo diferentes escenarios de manejo, los cuales incluyeron estrategias de tasas de explotacion constantes y capturas constantes. Los resultados sugieren que el stock actual es solo 17% de la bioma virgen y que, para una estrategia de captura constante, un incremento del 10% en el nivel de captura actual podria causar el colapso de la pesqueria en 20 anos. Los resultados de las simulaciones sugieren que una estrategia de tasa de explotacion constante entre 15% y 25% causaria que la poblacion se recuperara y la captura se maximizara en 2024. Mayores niveles de explotacion incrementarian la probabilidad de que la biomasa sea menor al 40% de la capacidad de carga de la poblacion.

Developing a Bayesian framework for stock assessment and decision analysis of the red sea urchin fishery in Baja California, Mexico