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Water shortage is the primary factor to constrain Xinjiang’s socio-economic development. This paper starts from the relationship between Xinjiang’s water consumption and socio-economic development, and selects optimal fitting functions to predict the probable water consumptions in the future decade. The results show total water consumption in Xinjiang rose steadily from 1997 to 2010, and the irrigation section occupied a great share (>90%). The total water consumption has a high correlation coefficient at 0.924 with per capita GDP and the predicted value is 583.84 × 108 m3 in 2020, with a 48.76 × 108 m3 increase compared to 2010. Water consumption in manufacture and construction also has high correlation coefficient with the secondary industrial GDP and this water share could be 27.68 × 108 m3 in 2020 with an increase 14.08 × 108 m3. Furthermore, considering the increasing ecological water need, the only effective way to achieve the goals of Xinjiang’s leapfrog development is to reasonably allocate water resources and improve the water use efficiency. Thus a set of scientific strategies are sketched for Xinjiang’s water exploitation and utilization, which is of important practical significance and reference value to both achieve Xinjiang’s Leapfrog-development and positive circle the social-economic-ecological development

An Analysis of the Water Conflicts and Solutions in the Leapfrog Development of Xinjiang, China