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In 1999, Typhoon 9918 struck Kyushu Island, which is located in Western Japan. Due to the storm surge and wind waves, the typhoon caused enormous damage to maritime structures. In this paper, the Improved Central Pressure Method is used to estimate the number of damage cases of damaged maritime structures along the coast caused by Typhoon 9918. Based on 74 previous typhoons, the Improved Central Pressure Method creates an index that determines the vulnerability of the coast to a typhoon with a specified path. This index is estimated using the path of Typhoon 9918 as determined from the location and the direction of the typhoon at a latitude of 30° N. The vulnerability index of maritime structures is calculated based on the path of the typhoon and coastline. The number of damage cases is estimated using the vulnerability index and the central pressure of the typhoon at a latitude of 30° N. Based on the results, the Central Pressure Method can be used to estimate the damage level of maritime structures that will occur along the coast before a typhoon strikes. The significant storm surge due to Typhoon 9918 caused extensive flooding. In the northern part of the western coast of Yatsushiro Sea, 12 people were killed by the storm surge. The actual total number of damaged maritime structures cases facing the west coast of Yatsushiro Sea, denoted by N, is 87. This is the largest number of damage cases in at least the last 50 years. The damage of structures means breaching of dikes, cracking of seawalls, overturning of breakwaters, shift of breakwaters, removal of rubble from groins, etc. The number of damage cases is the sum of the cases of damage of structures in each coastline for each typhoon. If the same seawall is damaged at two points along the coastline, it is counted as two damage cases. In this paper, the number of damaged maritime structures attributed to Typhoon 9918 was estimated using the Improved Central Pressure Method. The Improved Central Pressure Method uses a vulnerability index for the given coast and typhoon passage (2), (3). This index is based on the damage caused by 74 typhoons in the past 25 years. The number of damage cases is estimated based on the path of Typhoon 9918 as determined from the typhoon's location and direction of movement at latitude of 30° N.

Using the Improved CP Method to Forecast Damage Level of Maritime Structures Caused by Typhoon9918