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Performance prediction of coastal defence structures becomes more challenging due to uncertainties arising from changing environments and deterioration processes; hence, requiring sophisticated time-variant reliability analysis in order to manage the risk of floods and erosions. This paper proposes a method for assessing failure probability of coastal defences with respect to their present condition grade. A Markov chain model is utilised to predict the transition probabilities between different condition grades of a coastal defence over time with respect to available maintenance plans. The deterioration level is categorised into 5 stages (each stage for an appropriate condition grade) in relation to the initial resistance, and then translated into a probabilistic framework in order to consider in the performance deterioration evaluation. A case study of a sea dyke section, located in Portsmouth, England, is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, the time-variant failure probability are illustrated in order to provide a clear understanding of performance evaluation in the future. The results show that the failure probability of the sea dyke associated with overtopping failure mode will increase significantly due to deterioration processes. 130 Available online at www.eccomasproceedia.org Eccomas Proceedia UNCECOMP (2017) 130-139 ©2017 The Authors. Published by Eccomas Proceedia. Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of UNCECOMP 2017. doi: 10.7712/120217.5357.16869 M. B. Mehrabani and H.-P. Chen

PERFORMANCE PREDICTIONS OF COASTAL DEFENCES USING STOCHASTIC DETERIORATION MODELLING