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There has been a growing interest on the effect of volcanic eruption on the aviation safety, air travel and economy especially after the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland. Since volcanic eruption is influential on a large geographic region, the effect usually extends to other neighboring countries. Korea also has an active volcano named Mountain Baekdu. Hence, the need to estimate in advance the quantitative impact of the potential eruption of Mt. Baekdu on South Korean air transportation system. However, previous studies with quantitative estimation were confined to the calculation of the direct economic loss from shut down of the airports, grounding of airlines, and trade deficits caused by the eruption. Therefore, this paper introduces a new approach to assess more accurate impact simultaneously considering volcanic ash dispersal and aviation routes. This approach is then applied to a virtual scenario to predict the damage to air traffic. With further development, this method can help estimate the damage in the air transportation industry in more accurate and faster ways. Prediction outcomes can also be utilized in setting up the emergency response plan for the air transportation industry and contribute to the creation of more proactive and predictive measures in the future.

A Quantitative Approach to the influence on the South Korean Air Transportation System in the Event of Volcanic Ash Dispersal