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RAND researchers examine the historical record of terrorism in the United States and Europe between 1970 and the end of 2013 to determine whether a significant terrorist attack somehow inspires other terrorist attacks and whether analysis of historical attacks suggests that increases in terrorism can be anticipated in the shadow of a large attack.

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Do Significant Terrorist Attacks Increase the Risk of Further Attacks? Initial Observations from a Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the United States and Europe from 1970 to 2013