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Forecasting probability or likelihood of technology development success has been a crucial factor for critical decisions in technology management such as R&D project selectio n and go or no-go decision of new product development (NPD) projects. This paper proposes an analytic network process (ANP) approach to forecasting of technology development success. Reviewing literature on factors affecting technology development success has constructed the ANP model composed of four criteria clusters : R&D characteristics, R&D competency, technological characteristics, and technological environment. An alternative cluster comprised of two elements, success and failure is also included in the model. The working of the proposed approach is provided with the help of a case study example of MRAM (magnetic random access memory) technology.

An Analytic Network Process(ANP) Approach to Forecasting of Technology Development Success : The Case of MRAM Technology