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Regional peace in the South China Sea, despite claimants by many nations is often transitory ranging from the search for survivors of MH370 tragedy to creating supposedly common and sustainable fishing grounds. This study explores transition theory which explains the shifting of a state to a viable end-state with incremental steps to achieve regional peace in a scenario of an environmental tragedy from nuclear radioactive contamination in South China Sea. The transition theory uses Multi-Level Perspectives (MLP) framework which combines both qualitative context and quantitative process in one integrated decision making framework. The decision making outcomes from the MLP can be on fairness under competition and cooperation for the common welfare gains. It can also be a decision-making outcome on equity with respect to each participating actors’ willingness to pay for the precautionary or damage abatement costs. A survey was conducted amongst ‘actors’ (N=20) as respondents on an assumed nuclear power plant radioactive contamination in the South China Sea region. The study shows that decision-making outcomes for equity and fairness by using transition theory in the MLP framework may lead to higher precautions that may be unaffordable to some of the disputing nations in South China Sea. However, technological innovations in long term radioactive contamination damage abatement technology which lead to lower precautions may provide the ‘common ground’ amongst the disputing nations to vouch for a more permanent regional peace.

Transition Theory in Decision Making for Regional Peace amongst Disputing Nations in Event of Nuclear Radioactive Contamination in South China Sea