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In the analysis of the potential of applying models to estimate threat of heat waves in Poland up to the end of the 21st century, two discrepant climate change models: the MPI‐M‐REMO‐ECHAM5 and DMI‐HIRHAM5‐ARPEGE have been used. In this regard, the maximum air temperature was analysed. The accepted definition of a heat wave was 3 and 5 consecu‐ tive days of temperatures ≥30°C. According to the more realistic ARPEGE model, after 2040, the number of 3-day heat waves will rise by 370% and after 2070 – 460%. In Warsaw, the extent of possible mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease in heat waves amounted to +134% in the period after 2070 according to the ARPEGE model.

The attempt to validate the applicability of two climate models for the evaluation of heat wave related mortality in Warsaw in the 21st century