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Purpose: To investigate the inter-correlation of tumor spread, volume and quantitative plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA level (pEBV DNA), and to further assess the prognostic efficacy of a novel risk stratification combining anatomic, volumetric and biological features in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods and Materials: One hundred and twelve patients with non-metastatic NPC were prospectively enrolled. Correlation of pEBV DNA with tumor invasiveness, lymph node (LN) metastasis, tumor volume and classification was tested by univariate and multivariate analyses. 5-year distant metastasis free survival (DMFS) was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Tumor volume, TNM stage and pEBV DNA were strongly inter-correlated to each other. Nodal volume, skull base invasion and LN metastasis to supraclavicular fossa were determined to be independent predictors for pEBV DNA level. To exclude collinearity, a risk stratification based on combination of EBV DNA, nodal volume and anatomic features was established, offering significant distinguishing ability in 5-year DMFS. Further multivariate Cox regression analysis found the novel stratification to be independent predictor of DMFS. Conclusions: Both anatomic spread and tumor volume contribute to pEBV DNA level, leading to strong inter-correlation between NPC stage, volume and EBV DNA. The proposed risk stratification combining anatomic, volumetric and biological features showed potential in refining DMFS prediction.

Interplay of Tumor Spread, Volume and Epstein-Barr Virus DNA in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Feasibility of An Integrative Risk Stratification Scheme