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A spatio-temporal statistical model for Chronic Wasting Dis- ease is presented. The model has underpinnings from traditional epidemic models with differential equations and uses a Bayesian hierarchy to directly incorporate existing prevalence data. Spatial dynamics are modeled explic- itly through a system of difference equations rather than through covariance. The posterior distribution gives evidence of a long term stable level of dis- ease prevalence, and approximates the probability of the movement of the disease from one area to another. Predictions for the future of Chronic Wast- ing Disease in Colorado are given. The model is used to formulate efficient sampling schemes for future data collection.

A Dynamic Spatial Model for Chronic Wasting Disease in Colorado