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This report presents a simple mathematical model to project the age distribution of the full-time permanent professional (FTPP) staff of the National Bureau of Standards. The report includes a brief description of types of models currently in use for manpower analyses, discussion of the probable data requirements for reliable models, some staff profile information which supplements material in recent administrative reports, and the description of our model. The principal projection is that under "status quo" assumptions (FTPP staff size, age distribution of hires, and the separation rates from age cohorts remain constant), the FTPP staff will in about 25 years reach a steady-state age distribution with average age about 1/2 year higher than its current level (just over h2 yrs . ) . Comparison of this distribution with the present one shows moderate increases in the fractions of staff in ages 21-30 and 51-60, a fractional rise in turnover, and a general decrease in the groups 31-50 years old. A near term effect is the intensified loss of senior scientists.

Projecting the age distribution of full-time permanent professional staff at the National Bureau of Standards