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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to simulate weekly rainfall over Tropical Brazil. Twenty-four years of the historical experiment of sixteen models for the austral summer and fall seasons were evaluated. In the analyzes performed in this study, frequency distribution and correlation were used to evaluate temporal variability. Principal Component Analysis to ascertain the characteristics of the dominant pattern of each model. The results suggest that some models have difficulty in simulating the spatial pattern of regional precipitation, especially related to the frequency of events and temporal variation, however, the dominant pattern found by the Principal Component Analysis showed that at least six models (ACCESS1-0, CanESM2, EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM3, MIROC5 and MRI-CGCM3) reasonably represented the temporal-space precipitation regime over Tropical Brazil.

Sensitivity of the CMIP5 models to precipitation in Tropical Brazil