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Neste trabalho foi investigada a influencia da variabilidade climatica na ocorrencia de enchentes no Medio e Submedio da bacia hidrografica do Sao Francisco (BHSF). A cheia registrada em 1985 foi selecionada para analise por representar um evento hidrologico extremo com caracteristicas ambientais pouco documentadas. A utilizacao do indice RAI (“Rainfall Anomaly Index”) na escala mensal como metodo de analise permitiu detectar a intensidade, duracao e extensao das areas atingidas pelo fenomeno. Uma analise estatistica complementar atraves de Analise Fatorial por Componentes Principais (ACP), aplicada ao conjunto de valores mensais do RAI, permitiu identificar vinculos entre configuracoes espaciais de anomalias de precipitacao na BHSF e padroes atmosfericos que influenciaram a intensidade e distribuicao das chuvas. Os resultados mostraram que a atuacao conjunta de sistemas meteorologicos transientes de diferentes escalas e responsavel pela organizacao da conveccao, precipitacao intensa e formacao de cheias com inundacoes no Submedio da BHSF.   A B S T R A C T In this work the influence of the climatic variability upon the occurrence of floods in the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFRB)is investigated. The major flood of 1985 was selected for analysis since it represents an extreme hydrological event whose environmental characteristics are poorly documented. The Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) obtained on a monthly scale allowed detection of the intensity, duration and extent of theareas affectedby the phenomenon. A complementary statistical analysisby means of the factorial analysis by principal components (PCA) applied to the monthly RAI values allowed to identify links between spatial configurations of the rainfall anomalies in the SFRB and atmospheric patterns that influenced rainfall intensity and distribution. The results showed that the joint action of transient meteorological systems of various scales is responsible for convection organization, heavy precipitation and formation of floods with inundations in the Lower Basin of the SFRB.  Key-Words: Hydrographic Basin of the Sao Francisco River, inundations, RAI index, factorial analysis by principal components.

Padrão Mensal de Anomalias de Precipitação: Uma Análise Estatística de Eventos Hidrológicos Extremos nas Sub-Bacias do Rio São Francisco (Standard Monthly Precipitation Anomalies: A Statistical Analysis of Extreme Hydrological Events in Sub-Basins from...