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The objective of the investigation was to test a simplified conceptual model of contingency for risk analysis of flood disaster in the city of Laranjal do Jari AP during the year 2000. The methodological basis was elaborated in terms of probability and level of impact of the event, considering the urban area affected, as well as economic and financial losses associated with it, including homeless and number of fatal victims. These variables were used in the composition of weights indicators ranging between 1 to 5 obtained from the contingency table. The sum of measured scores of each impact factor (multiplying the weight versus the evaluation score) served as a support for calculating the probability of recurrence of extreme event, principally considering the degree of exposure of the area in relation to the margins of the Jari river. Furthermore, the risk matrix generated charged columns and rows that scored highest levels of likelihood and severity of impact event. Whereas the levels of environmental criticality of extreme event. Then, it was quantified the level of vulnerability of the community and the fragility indicators of the affected community. We conclude that the indicators of the matrix can be used as subsidies to preventives measures adopted in future in the medium and short term, based on crisis monitoring and management.

ANÁLISE DE RISCO COMO MEDIDA PREVENTIVA DE INUNDAÇÕES NA AMAZÔNIA: ESTUDO DE CASO DE ENCHENTE DE 2000 EM LARANJAL DO JARI-AP, BRASIL