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Uma serie temporal consiste em um conjunto de dados de qualquer fenomeno observados ordenadamente. Analise de series temporais aplicadas a dados meteorologicos tem atraido especial interesse nos ultimos anos devido a influencia exercida pelo clima, sobretudo na agricultura. O presente trabalho realizou um estudo em uma serie temporal de precipitacao de Erechim (RS) no periodo de 2003 a 2011 buscando encontrar um modelo mais adequado de previsao. A inclusao de covariaveis (temperatura maxima e minima e a Normal Climatologica de precipitacao) no modelo estatistico do tipo SARIMAX (0, 0, 0) (2, 2, 1) mostrou-se mais ajustado ao conjunto de dados. Testes de correlacao entre as series (real e sintetica) demonstraram um alto coeficiente de correlacao e de determinacao. E possivel que o fenomeno ENOS tenha sido o responsavel pelas diferencas encontradas entre ambas as series Abstract A temporal series consists on a group of data of some phenomenon observed in an ordered way. Time series analysis applied to meteorological data use to attract particular interest in recent years due to the influence of the climate, especially in agriculture. This study aimed at studying time series of precipitation at Erechim (RS) in the period from 2003 to 2011 trying to find a more appropriate model to describe it. The inclusion of covariates (maximum and minimum temperature and Normal Climatology of precipitation) in the statistical model SARIMAX (0, 0, 0) (2, 2, 1) proved to be better adjusted to the set of data. Correlation tests between sets (real and synthetic) showed a high correlation and determination coefficient. It is possible that the El Nino South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has been responsible for the differences found between both series.

ambiência

Análise de uma série temporal de precipitação para Erechim (RS) e um possível método de previsão climática / Analysis of a series of precipitation for Erechim (RS) and a method of possible climate prediction