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Some strategic business problems cannot be expressed in analytical forms and are difficult to define in a deterministic manner. This chapter explores the use of Monte Carlo methods in simulation modelling of decision problems. The focus is on using Monte Carlo simulation to provide a quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers in business decisions. Using an example based on hypothetical data, we illustrate decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modelling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. We explore how to propagate uncertainty in input variables to get a probability distribution of the output(s) of interest.

Perspective Chapter: Application of Monte Carlo Methods in Strategic Business Decisions