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A critical issue in climate prediction and climate change projection is to estimate their uncertainty. The estimation of uncertainty has been an intensive research field in recent years, which is also called the potential predictability study. The terminology of the uncertainty of prediction and the potential predictability are often alternatively used in literature due to their inherent linkage, although they have some difference in a rigorous framework of predictability theory. For example, when a system has a high potential predictability, we may think the uncertainty of its predictions to be small, and vice versa. In this chapter, unless otherwise indicated, the uncertainty of prediction and potential predictability have the similar meaning in describing and measuring the prediction utility, and are thus used alternatively. For simplicity, we also often use the term of predictability to denote the potential predictability.

Methods of Estimating Uncertainty of Climate Prediction and Climate Change Projection