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What is the relationship between different levels of coercion and popular protest activity in hybrid and autocratic regimes?1 This is the question I want to address in this paper. An abundance of theoretical and empirical studies exists on whether state repression increases or decreases the incidence of domestic protest. However, findings have been mixed providing support for almost every possible relationship between protest and repression (e.g. Rasler 1996, Moore 1998, Carey 2006). The three dominant approaches are (1) the inverted Uhypothesis, (2) the backlash hypothesis, and (3) the non-linear hypothesis. The first perspective, the inverted U curve, argues that a shift toward lower levels of repression opens new opportunities for challengers to act collectively to demand their rights and to make claims against the state (Tarrow 1994). The second view, the so-called backlash hypothesis, is based on the opposite assumption contending that repression facilitates protest by nourishing a collective sense of defiance and intensifying organizational solidarity among diverse loosely connected movements (Meyer and Staggenborg 1996). A third array of studies claims that the relationship between coercion and protest might be more complex and more multi-dynamic than both the ‘inverted-U’ hypothesis and backlash assumption presume and advocate some sort of non-linear relationship (Kowalski and Hover 1992).

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When do People Protest? – Using a Game Theoretic Framework to Shed Light on the Relationship Between Repression and Protest in Hybrid and Autocratic Regimes