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The success of a firm depends on its ability to manage uncertainty of investment projects and strategies it decides to make or develop. During the management of new projects, routines and technologies, its constant objective should be to earn increasing returns by exploiting opportunities and limiting losses that could be created by uncertainty. Thus, firms must carefully recognize and evaluate the actions to be taken to respond to uncertainty. To help managers in their decision-making process in uncertain environments, new techniques and theories have been developed. One of them is the real option theory, where a real option is the right, not the obligation, to take some action in the future (Dixit and Pindyck, 1995). The formal approach, which originated from financial models, deals with future uncertainty and opportunities a firm can seize, and aims at valuing the flexibility that often managers have to “react” to uncertainty. In this sense, the real option potential to estimate the value of this flexibility is appealing for managers. As Leslie and Michaels (1997) report, in fact, over the past years, the theory has drawn a growing body of literature and has gathered support across the business world in academia, consulting, and the corporation. Copeland and Weiner (1990) of McKinsey observe that the “use of options methodology gives managers a better handle on uncertainty”.

A Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Delphi-Based Approach to Valuing Real Options in Engineering Fields