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Change in freshwater availability is arguably one of the most pressingissues associated with global change.  Agriculture, which uses roughly70% of the total global freshwater supply, figures prominently amongsectors that may be adversely affected by global change.  Of specificconcern are small-scale agricultural systems that make up nearly 90%of all farming systems and generate 40% of agricultural outputworldwide.  These systems are experiencing a range of novel shocks,including increased variability in precipitation and competing demandsfor water and labor that challenge their capacity to maintainagricultural output.  This paper employs a robustness-vulnerabilitytrade-off framework to explore the capacity of these small-scalesystems to cope with novel shocks and directed change.  Motivated bythe Pumpa Irrigation System in Nepal, we develop and analyze a simplemodel of rice-paddy irrigation and use it to demonstrate howinstitutional arrangements may, in becoming very well tuned to copewith specific shocks and manage particular human interactionsassociated with irrigated agriculture, generate vulnerabilities tonovel shocks.  This characterization of robustness-vulnerabilitytrade-off relationships is then used to inform policy options toimprove the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to adapt tochanges in freshwater availability

Robustness, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity in small-scale social-ecological systems: The Pumpa Irrigation System in Nepal