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The IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria are used to assign species to classes of projected extinction risk (least concern, near threatened, vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered, extinct in the wild, extinct). Formerly, the classification into categories was based on expert opinion. Since 1994, the process has become more rigorous, underpinned by quantitative criteria with specified numerical thresholds (IUCN 1994, 2001). Although most of the criteria are based on attributes associated with extinction risk, such as small population size, rapidly declining population, or small and declining range size, only criterion E has thresholds for extinction probability within a specified time-frame as determined by stochastic quantitative models (Lande 1993), such as those used in population viability analyses (IUCN 2001). For example, a species facing a probability of extinction of at least 50% within 10 years or 3 generations (whichever is longer) qualifies as critically endangered under criterion E, and 50% of critically endangered species are anticipated to be extinct 10 years from the year of classification.

A Necessary Adjustment of the Extinction Risk associated with the Red List Criteria?