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As the world’s most populous country taking up 18.84% of the world’s total population, China’s grain supply has attracted high concerns in the world. This article takes the grain output increase in China from 2003 to 2014 as the research object, and wants to explore the influence factors of China’s grain growth and spatial effect analysis. It employs LMDI method to decompose China’s total grain output increase during 2003-2014. The increase of OFPPU paid maximum contribution to China’s total grain output increase among ACL, MCI and GPP. The conclusion of China’s grain output provincial spatial analysis is that the six provinces including Heilongjiang, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Anhui and Shandong, contributed 62.2% share to China’s increase. The results of predicted OFPPU by Exponential Smoothing Method of Hoter-Winter No-Seasonal are that grain growth in China can meet requirements of grain security for China’s population growth and living improvement. The author wishes China can increase investment on land consolidation and renovate facilities for farmland and water conservancy projects.

The Influence Factors Decomposition of Grain Output Increase in China: 2003-2014