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According to IPCC 4th Assessment Report, concentration of carbon dioxide has been increasing by 30% since Industrial Revolution. Most of IPCC emission scenarios estimate that the concentration will reach up to double of its present level within 100-year if the current tendency continues. The global warming has resulted in the agro-climate change over the Korean Peninsula as well. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the future agro-climate induced by the increase of greenhouse gases in terms of the agro-climatic indices in the Korean peninsula. In this study, the future climate is simulated by an atmosphere/ocean/land surface/sea ice coupled general circulation climate model, Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model(hereafter, PNU CGCM), and by a regional weather prediction model, Weather Research and Forecasting Model(hereafter, WRF) for the purpose of a dynamical downscaling. The changes of the vegetable period and the crop growth period, defined as the total number of days of a year exceeding daily mean temperature of 5 and 10, respectively, have been analyzed. Our results estimate that the beginning date of vegetable and crop growth periods get earlier by 3.7 and 17 days, respectively, in spring under the -doubled climate. In most of the Korean peninsula, the predicted frost days in spring decrease by 10 days. Climatic production index (CPI), which closely represent the productivity of rice, tends to increase in the double climate. Thus, it is suggested that the future doubled climate might be favorable for crops due to the decrease of frost days in spring, and increased temperature and insolation during the heading date as we expect from the increased CPI.

Agro-Climatic Indices Changes over the Korean Peninsula in CO2 Doubled Climate Induced by Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice Coupled General Circulation Model