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The geographical distribution of freeze risk determines the latitudinal and altitudinal limits and the maximum acreage suitable for fruit production. Any changes in its pattern can affect the policy for climate change adaptation in fruit industry. High-definition digital maps for such applications are not available yet due to uncertainty in the combined responses of temperature and dormancy depth under the future climate scenarios. We applied an empirical freeze risk index, which was derived from the combination of the dormancy depth and threshold temperature inducing freeze damage to dormant buds of `Changhowon Hwangdo` peach trees, to the high-definition digital climate maps prepared for the current (1971-2000), the near future (2011-2040) and the far future (2071-2100) climate scenarios. According to the geospatial analysis at a landscape scale, both the safe and risky areas will be expanded in the future and some of the major peach cultivation areas may encounter difficulty in safe overwintering due to weakening cold tolerance resulting from insufficient chilling. Our test of this method for the two counties representing the major peach cultivation areas in South Korea demonstrated that the migration of risky areas could be detected at a sub-grid scale. The method presented in this study can contribute significantly to climate change adaptation planning in agriculture as a decision aids tool.

han'gug nonglim gi'sang haghoeji/han-guk nongnim gisang hakoeji

Geospatial Assessment of Frost and Freeze Risk in 'Changhowon Hwangdo' Peach (Prunus persica) Trees as Affected by the Projected Winter Warming in South Korea: III. Identifying Freeze Risk Zones in the Future Using High-Definition Climate Scenarios