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A New empirical model has been developed for predicting liquefaction-induced lateral spreading displacement and is a function of response spectral displacements and geotechnical parameters. Different from the earlier model of Zhang and Zhao (2005), the application of which was limited to Japan and California, the new model can potentially be applied anywhere if ground shaking can be estimated (by using local strong-motion attenuation relations). The new model is applied in New Zealand where the response spectral displacement is estimated using New Zealand strong-motion attenuation relations (McVerry et al. 2006). The accuracy of the new model is evaluated by comparing predicted lateral displacements with those which have been measured from aerial photos or the width of ground cracks at the Landing Road bridge, the James Street loop, the Whakatane Pony Club and the Edgecumbe road and rail bridges sites after the 1987 Edgecumbe earthquake. Results show that most predicted errors (defined as the ratio of the difference between the measured and predicted lateral displacements to the measured one) from the new model are less than 40%. When compared with earlier models (Youd et al. 2002, Zhang and Zhao 2005), the new model provides the lowest mean errors.

Empirical models for predicting lateral spreading and evaluation using New Zealand data