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The recent literature on Central Bank credibility points out that an improvement in the latter generates better (a decrease in) sacrifice rates. This paper aimed to analyze whether this effect can be directly observed through GDP expectations. The analysis was based on a VAR model and impulse response functions for Brazil from 2002 to 2018. The results indicated that increases in the Central Bank credibility did not imply short-term (first 12 months) gains in GDP expectations. Nevertheless, after the first year from the credibility shock, GDP expectations show an effective increase, thereby indicating a lower long-term sacrifice rate perception.

Credibility of the Central Bank and GDP expectations: an alternative analysis on the Brazilian’s sacrifice rates from 2002 to 2018